An Updated Case on Chance(To Earn My Vote Back)
Jul 19, 2010 0:36:59 GMT -6
Post by Claude on Jul 19, 2010 0:36:59 GMT -6
Let me preface this case by saying a couple of things. One, this is not a Point By Point Analysis. I am not going into this to determine whether or not Chance is scum. There is virtually no doubt in my mind that he is a Spy, and I am presenting this case to you in hopes of proving that. Two, much of this is content that I have posted before, even as recently as Game Day 5. But in the interest of winning the contest, I am restating it. However, it is not all old content, some of it will be new. Accordingly, I sincerely hope that you do not just ignore it all. Now then, I will explain my problems with Chance's behavior on the basis of each day of the game, and also his interactions with the 2 dead Democrat Spies. In doing so, I hope to bring more people to the realization that chance is a Spy, and I hope to earn my vote back.
Day 1:
Chance spent much of this day defending Camilla. In my opinion, he defended her too much. From my play experience, citizens are not likely to go overboard defending other people, because they could simply be wrong, and it is incredibly damaging to them when they are. It is simply not worth the risk. This is not to say that citizens won't say 'the case on this person is bad'. That happens. This is not a tell, because a case on a Spy can be bad, but still can have results. However, this is not what Chance did. He repeatedly defended Camilla directly, including(but not limited to) answering questions before she could do so, in some instances. In my experience, this is what a Spy does, when they are just trying to curry favor. Now, it's possible that this is simply how Chance is. Maybe he is a reckless player, or maybe he is some kind of white knight. Then, this would not be a tell. However, if this were the case, I believe that we would have seen more evidence of this in the last few days. And we have not. For me, that leaves the conclusion that Chance defended Camilla because he(as a Spy) knew she was a Citizen, and wanted to look good from it.
There is also the evidence that Chance used against me, early in the game. One of his early accusations was the 'Tina talking to Cory' thing that was being discussed for awhile. At first, Chance tried to hold it against me that I thought that this made them both Spies. Of course, it was Chance himself that said that they were talking after teams had been decided(to the point that he said I was wrong in thinking that they were talking after alignment, but before teams). Chance also displayed the exact same sentiment that I did. Once it was decided that he was wrong about the timing, he tried to change why this made me suspect, saying that I had been 'subtly defending Cory and Tina'(a ludicrous accusation that he never provided evidence of, despite numerous requests from myself and others that he do so), and that my reaction was 'not overwhelming'(this is a paraphrase because I don't remember the exact words, but that is the sentiment. I pointed out that it's impossible to judge how someone reacts to something in AIM chat. Chance dropped this. I'm not so much holding it against him that he made such an awful point, but that he tried to change his argument when the first part was proven to be giant hypocrisy on his part.
Toward the end of Day 1, Chance was coming under significant fire from Awohali in group chat. He was flatly not answering some of Awohali's questions. This was pointed out(either by Awohali, myself, or both), and Chance said he would go find them to answer them. Instead, he just asked me some really obscure question that had nothing to do with anything, and then ducked out of the thread while I was trying to look it up.
Chance on Day 2:
At the start of Day 2(before Imprisonments etc), Chance started to take a serious amount of pressure from various sources. He had been a leading lynch candidate going into Exile(and would have ended up in a run-off tie w/ Camilla if not for her self-votes), and was only drawing more suspicion(as evidenced in threads from around that time). And then, out of nowhere, Chance gets Exile Immunity. Chance originally tried to argue that 'maybe a Citizen saved him', but this seems absurdly unlikely, considering that not many people outwardly supported Chance on our side(Isaac did..more on that later). Lilith and I put forth that the ability was very likely to have been a Spy ability, and that admittedly, they could just be trying to cause a mislynch. However, upon thinking about that more, I really don't think that is the case. Chance was an extremely likely lynch at the time, I can't see a Spy saving a mislynch just to mislynch them later. There is also the fact that, in my mind, if the Spies were going to frame someone here, it would have been me, considering my 'you can lynch me if Camilla is a Citizen' statement. The Spies giving me Exile immunity there would have been an absolute dagger and very likely would have resulted in me getting lynched the next day. The most likely conclusion here is the simple one. Chance, as a Spy under pressure, was saved from Exile by another Spy.
Chance really did not contribute much Day 2. This is partially expected, considering that I had removed his ability to vote. However, that removal did not stop him from making a case on me..nor did it stop him for talking out of the side of his mouth at Jasmine. I find this kind of insincerity to be a scum tell. Chance knew he was not going to get me lynched(the rest of the Democrats made this clear), but he still made a case on me. Yet, he was supposedly convinced that Jasmine was also a Spy..but made no case on her. It's also worth noting that he never said anything about Margot, despite the fact that she was constantly talked about by everyone else. For someone that was so vocal about the top lynch candidates the previous day, this is a glaring difference for him. I believe that he was content to simply let that lynch happen, and couldn't find a window to make himself look better by defending her, so he just said nothing.
Chance on Day 5:
Chance hasn't had much to say today. He wanted me to consider the possibility that Isaac framed him, and that the Spies in general framed him. I did think about(and discuss) both of these things, ultimately coming to the conclusion that this was probably not what happened.
I did note, early in the day(and Mary agreed with me), that he did his best jump in on Dane's pre-imprisonment bullying of Lilith. Lilith that was later Imprisoned. I can't believe that this is just a coincidence, it is too convenient. Also worth noting is that Chance did the same thing when Dane was pushing against Awohali. It is worth noting that how Chance behaved in these instances is identical to how Isaac behaved on multiple occasions in group chat. And of course, Isaac was a Spy.
Chance on Day 6:
Today, Chance came into group chat on Sunday. At first, he was probing Broderick. He asked Broderick if he(Broderick) thought Awohali was suspicious. Broderick said no. Chance asked him why. In my opinion, this is a ridiculous question. People start at a neutral plane, and if they don't do anything suspicious, then obviously you are not going to have anything to suspect them of. When Broderick said no, Chance should have dropped it. But he didn't, and it really looked like he was just trying to throw dirt onto yet another one of the people that are/has voted him. Speaking of that, if you look at the people that Chance has expressed suspicion of throughout this game, or at least put any effort into getting lynched..all of them expressed suspicion of him first(except for me. Chance claimed to be suspicious of me before I expressed suspicion towards him).
After this, Chance asked me the following question:
[18:18] spies8chance: claude, being that i was nearly exiled in episode one and was only saved by camilla forgetting to vote, would the smart play not have been to vote for camilla there, if i were a spy? and if so, why then did i not?
A couple of things here. For one, Chance spent all day attacking me while defending Camilla. If he would have switched his vote at the last minute, it would have made him look extremely scummy. For another, Chance claims later that, as a Citizen, he would move his vote to Camilla in order to avoid being lynched. This is completely in contradiction with his cavalier defense of her on Day 1. It is also worth noting that it has been 5 game days since all of this occured, but Chance is only now bringing it up. If he were seriously considering this on Day 1, it is logical to conclude that he would have brought it up at some point before this. At this point in the conversation, I asked Chance the following: "If this is what you would do as a Citizen when your neck was on the line..why didn't you?" At first he refused to answer. He insisted that I address his question first. I told him plainly, that I think he didn't do this because he is a Spy, and he knew it would make him look bad. Rather than answer my question, he just left the chat. Eventually he came back, and we had a converastion, which you can read here. Throughout this conversation, Chance never really answers my question satisfactorily. Not in my opinion, nor in Broderick's. He provides a couple of answers, but they do not hold up to scrunity, and are really just contradicting what he originally said. In my opinion, this conversation is Chance at his scummiest. He repeatedly changes his story throughout the conversation, without ever really making much sense. And eventually, he just storms out again.
Chance & Isaac:
There are many, many ties between Chance and Isaac. Isaac's attitude toward Chance is noticeably different than it is toward anyone else. He sucked up to Chance constantly. I cannot find examples of him behaving this way toward anyone else. Chance said to me that 'maybe Isaac was framing him'. I've thought about this. Honestly, I don't think Isaac was a capable enough player to do this. His Spy Moves were all extremely obvious. Furthermore, if Isaac were just a Spy latching onto a townie, it would have been me. Knowing that Camilla was a Citizen, he had to figure that I stood a great chance of getting lynched Day 2, and that being on my side would look great for him after the fact. Instead, he went with Chance. To me, again, the simplest conclusion is the most likely. He backed Chance because they were both scum. This tie is also evident, IMO, in the fact that after Isaac switched to the Republican side, he went after Jasmine..the only other person Chance was expressing real suspicion toward at the time. I don't find it believable that he was framing chance, and continued this effort after no longer being on the same team as him. Doesn't make much sense.
Chance & Magalie:
There are not as many ties between Chance and Magalie as there were between Chance and Isaac. However, one bit is particularly telling. At one point while Stephanie is talking to Magalie, Magalie tells Stephanie that she thinks I am the 'Spy holding all of the Spies together'. And that Lilith is ALSO a Spy, and is trying to help me take Chance out. She says that Chance is not a spy at all, but is just whiny. This makes 2 Spies that have defended Chance, all the while attacking me. This is particularly relevant because Lilith is a dead Citizen, and it is not likely that Magalie was trying to throw suspicion onto Lilith for a case on someone she knew to be town. She was just trying to downplay suspicion on Chance.
That is pretty much it. I can only hope that, especially considering Magalie's attitude toward Chance and his behavior today, people will finally realize what I have been saying all along..that he is a Spy.
Day 1:
Chance spent much of this day defending Camilla. In my opinion, he defended her too much. From my play experience, citizens are not likely to go overboard defending other people, because they could simply be wrong, and it is incredibly damaging to them when they are. It is simply not worth the risk. This is not to say that citizens won't say 'the case on this person is bad'. That happens. This is not a tell, because a case on a Spy can be bad, but still can have results. However, this is not what Chance did. He repeatedly defended Camilla directly, including(but not limited to) answering questions before she could do so, in some instances. In my experience, this is what a Spy does, when they are just trying to curry favor. Now, it's possible that this is simply how Chance is. Maybe he is a reckless player, or maybe he is some kind of white knight. Then, this would not be a tell. However, if this were the case, I believe that we would have seen more evidence of this in the last few days. And we have not. For me, that leaves the conclusion that Chance defended Camilla because he(as a Spy) knew she was a Citizen, and wanted to look good from it.
There is also the evidence that Chance used against me, early in the game. One of his early accusations was the 'Tina talking to Cory' thing that was being discussed for awhile. At first, Chance tried to hold it against me that I thought that this made them both Spies. Of course, it was Chance himself that said that they were talking after teams had been decided(to the point that he said I was wrong in thinking that they were talking after alignment, but before teams). Chance also displayed the exact same sentiment that I did. Once it was decided that he was wrong about the timing, he tried to change why this made me suspect, saying that I had been 'subtly defending Cory and Tina'(a ludicrous accusation that he never provided evidence of, despite numerous requests from myself and others that he do so), and that my reaction was 'not overwhelming'(this is a paraphrase because I don't remember the exact words, but that is the sentiment. I pointed out that it's impossible to judge how someone reacts to something in AIM chat. Chance dropped this. I'm not so much holding it against him that he made such an awful point, but that he tried to change his argument when the first part was proven to be giant hypocrisy on his part.
Toward the end of Day 1, Chance was coming under significant fire from Awohali in group chat. He was flatly not answering some of Awohali's questions. This was pointed out(either by Awohali, myself, or both), and Chance said he would go find them to answer them. Instead, he just asked me some really obscure question that had nothing to do with anything, and then ducked out of the thread while I was trying to look it up.
Chance on Day 2:
At the start of Day 2(before Imprisonments etc), Chance started to take a serious amount of pressure from various sources. He had been a leading lynch candidate going into Exile(and would have ended up in a run-off tie w/ Camilla if not for her self-votes), and was only drawing more suspicion(as evidenced in threads from around that time). And then, out of nowhere, Chance gets Exile Immunity. Chance originally tried to argue that 'maybe a Citizen saved him', but this seems absurdly unlikely, considering that not many people outwardly supported Chance on our side(Isaac did..more on that later). Lilith and I put forth that the ability was very likely to have been a Spy ability, and that admittedly, they could just be trying to cause a mislynch. However, upon thinking about that more, I really don't think that is the case. Chance was an extremely likely lynch at the time, I can't see a Spy saving a mislynch just to mislynch them later. There is also the fact that, in my mind, if the Spies were going to frame someone here, it would have been me, considering my 'you can lynch me if Camilla is a Citizen' statement. The Spies giving me Exile immunity there would have been an absolute dagger and very likely would have resulted in me getting lynched the next day. The most likely conclusion here is the simple one. Chance, as a Spy under pressure, was saved from Exile by another Spy.
Chance really did not contribute much Day 2. This is partially expected, considering that I had removed his ability to vote. However, that removal did not stop him from making a case on me..nor did it stop him for talking out of the side of his mouth at Jasmine. I find this kind of insincerity to be a scum tell. Chance knew he was not going to get me lynched(the rest of the Democrats made this clear), but he still made a case on me. Yet, he was supposedly convinced that Jasmine was also a Spy..but made no case on her. It's also worth noting that he never said anything about Margot, despite the fact that she was constantly talked about by everyone else. For someone that was so vocal about the top lynch candidates the previous day, this is a glaring difference for him. I believe that he was content to simply let that lynch happen, and couldn't find a window to make himself look better by defending her, so he just said nothing.
Chance on Day 5:
Chance hasn't had much to say today. He wanted me to consider the possibility that Isaac framed him, and that the Spies in general framed him. I did think about(and discuss) both of these things, ultimately coming to the conclusion that this was probably not what happened.
I did note, early in the day(and Mary agreed with me), that he did his best jump in on Dane's pre-imprisonment bullying of Lilith. Lilith that was later Imprisoned. I can't believe that this is just a coincidence, it is too convenient. Also worth noting is that Chance did the same thing when Dane was pushing against Awohali. It is worth noting that how Chance behaved in these instances is identical to how Isaac behaved on multiple occasions in group chat. And of course, Isaac was a Spy.
Chance on Day 6:
Today, Chance came into group chat on Sunday. At first, he was probing Broderick. He asked Broderick if he(Broderick) thought Awohali was suspicious. Broderick said no. Chance asked him why. In my opinion, this is a ridiculous question. People start at a neutral plane, and if they don't do anything suspicious, then obviously you are not going to have anything to suspect them of. When Broderick said no, Chance should have dropped it. But he didn't, and it really looked like he was just trying to throw dirt onto yet another one of the people that are/has voted him. Speaking of that, if you look at the people that Chance has expressed suspicion of throughout this game, or at least put any effort into getting lynched..all of them expressed suspicion of him first(except for me. Chance claimed to be suspicious of me before I expressed suspicion towards him).
After this, Chance asked me the following question:
[18:18] spies8chance: claude, being that i was nearly exiled in episode one and was only saved by camilla forgetting to vote, would the smart play not have been to vote for camilla there, if i were a spy? and if so, why then did i not?
A couple of things here. For one, Chance spent all day attacking me while defending Camilla. If he would have switched his vote at the last minute, it would have made him look extremely scummy. For another, Chance claims later that, as a Citizen, he would move his vote to Camilla in order to avoid being lynched. This is completely in contradiction with his cavalier defense of her on Day 1. It is also worth noting that it has been 5 game days since all of this occured, but Chance is only now bringing it up. If he were seriously considering this on Day 1, it is logical to conclude that he would have brought it up at some point before this. At this point in the conversation, I asked Chance the following: "If this is what you would do as a Citizen when your neck was on the line..why didn't you?" At first he refused to answer. He insisted that I address his question first. I told him plainly, that I think he didn't do this because he is a Spy, and he knew it would make him look bad. Rather than answer my question, he just left the chat. Eventually he came back, and we had a converastion, which you can read here. Throughout this conversation, Chance never really answers my question satisfactorily. Not in my opinion, nor in Broderick's. He provides a couple of answers, but they do not hold up to scrunity, and are really just contradicting what he originally said. In my opinion, this conversation is Chance at his scummiest. He repeatedly changes his story throughout the conversation, without ever really making much sense. And eventually, he just storms out again.
Chance & Isaac:
There are many, many ties between Chance and Isaac. Isaac's attitude toward Chance is noticeably different than it is toward anyone else. He sucked up to Chance constantly. I cannot find examples of him behaving this way toward anyone else. Chance said to me that 'maybe Isaac was framing him'. I've thought about this. Honestly, I don't think Isaac was a capable enough player to do this. His Spy Moves were all extremely obvious. Furthermore, if Isaac were just a Spy latching onto a townie, it would have been me. Knowing that Camilla was a Citizen, he had to figure that I stood a great chance of getting lynched Day 2, and that being on my side would look great for him after the fact. Instead, he went with Chance. To me, again, the simplest conclusion is the most likely. He backed Chance because they were both scum. This tie is also evident, IMO, in the fact that after Isaac switched to the Republican side, he went after Jasmine..the only other person Chance was expressing real suspicion toward at the time. I don't find it believable that he was framing chance, and continued this effort after no longer being on the same team as him. Doesn't make much sense.
Chance & Magalie:
There are not as many ties between Chance and Magalie as there were between Chance and Isaac. However, one bit is particularly telling. At one point while Stephanie is talking to Magalie, Magalie tells Stephanie that she thinks I am the 'Spy holding all of the Spies together'. And that Lilith is ALSO a Spy, and is trying to help me take Chance out. She says that Chance is not a spy at all, but is just whiny. This makes 2 Spies that have defended Chance, all the while attacking me. This is particularly relevant because Lilith is a dead Citizen, and it is not likely that Magalie was trying to throw suspicion onto Lilith for a case on someone she knew to be town. She was just trying to downplay suspicion on Chance.
That is pretty much it. I can only hope that, especially considering Magalie's attitude toward Chance and his behavior today, people will finally realize what I have been saying all along..that he is a Spy.
