Chance
Jul 11, 2010 14:13:25 GMT -6
Post by Claude on Jul 11, 2010 14:13:25 GMT -6
People have been asking me to post a case on Chance. I've been resistant to do so. Largely because the vast majority of his scummy content is from Day 1/Day 2...he has pretty much disappeared(as far as providing content) for the last couple of days. There is also the fact that so much of his scumminess is contextual, and hard to transition from chats to forums. But here are some of my major points against him:
Chance on Day 1:
Chance was very avid in defending Camilla before she was lynched. Too avid, in my estimation(especially considering that he hasn't defended anyone else since then, despite being 'right' about Camilla). Plenty of people disagreed with my statement that Camilla contradicted herself, and they said so. But they didn't go out of their way to argue for Camilla. Why not? Because townies don't do so for people of unknown alignments, due to how it will reflect upon them if they just happen to be wrong.
Now, it's possible that this is simply how Chance is. Maybe he is a reckless player, or maybe he is some kind of white knight. Then, this would not be a tell. However, if this were the case, I believe that we would have seen more evidence of this in the last few days. And we have not. For me, that leaves the conclusion that Chance defended Camilla because he(as a Spy) knew she was a Citizen, and wanted to look good from it.
There is also the evidence that Chance used against me, early in the game. One of his early accusations was the 'Tina talking to Cory' thing that was being discussed for awhile. At first, Chance tried to hold it against me that I thought that this made them both Spies. Of course, it was Chance himself that said that they were talking after teams had been decided(to the point that he said I was wrong in thinking that they were talking after alignment, but before teams). Chance also displayed the exact same sentiment that I did. Once it was decided that he was wrong about the timing, he tried to change why this made me suspect, saying that I had been 'subtlely defending Cory and Tina'(a ludicrous accusation that he never provided evidence of, despite numerous requests from myself and others that he do so), and that my reaction was 'not overwhelming'(this is a paraphrase because I don't remember the exact words, but that is the sentiment. I pointed out that it's impossible to judge how someone reacts to something in AIM chat. Chance dropped this. I'm not so much holding it against him that he made such an awful point, but that he tried to change his argument when the first part was proven to be giant hypocrisy on his part.
Toward the end of Day 1, Chance was coming under significant fire from Awohali in group chat. He was flatly not answering some of Awohali's questions. This was pointed out(either by Awohali, myself, or both), and Chance said he would go find them to answer them. Instead, he just asked me some really obscure question that had nothing to do with anything, and then ducked out of the thread while I was trying to look it up.
Chance on Day 2:
At the start of Day 2(before Imprisonments etc), Chance started to take a serious amount of pressure from various sources. He had been a leading lynch candidate going into Exile(and would have ended up in a run-off tie w/ Camilla if not for her self-votes), and was only drawing more suspicion(as evidenced in threads from around that time). And then, out of nowhere, Chance gets Exile Immunity. Chance originally tried to argue that 'maybe a Citizen saved him', but this seems absurdly unlikely, considering that not many people outwardly supported Chance on our side(Isaac did..more on that later). Lilith and I put forth that the ability was very likely to have been a Spy ability, and that admittedly, they could just be trying to cause a mislynch. However, upon thinking about that more, I really don't think that is the case. Chance was an extremely likely lynch at the time, I can't see a Spy saving a mislynch just to mislynch them later. There is also the fact that, in my mind, if the Spies were going to frame someone here, it would have been me, considering my 'you can lynch me if Camilla is a Citizen' statement. The Spies giving me Exile immunity there would have been an absolute dagger and very likely would have resulted in me getting lynched the next day. The most likely conclusion here is the simple one. Chance, as a Spy under pressure, was saved from Exile by another Spy.
Chance really did not contribute much Day 2. This is partially expected, considering that I had removed his ability to vote. However, that removal did not stop him from making a case on me..nor did it stop him for talking out of the side of his mouth at Jasmine. I find this kind of insincerity to be a scum tell. Chance knew he was not going to get me lynched(the rest of the Democrats made this clear), but he still made a case on me. Yet, he was supposedly convinced that Jasmine was also a Spy..but made no case on her. It's also worth noting that he never said anything about Margot, despite the fact that she was constantly talked about by everyone else. For someone that was so vocal about the top lynch candidates the previous day, this is a glaring difference for him. I believe that he was content to simply let that lynch happen, and couldn't find a window to make himself look better by defending her, so he just said nothing.
Chance & Isaac:
There are many, many ties between Chance and Isaac. Isaac's attitude toward Chance is noticeably different than it is toward anyone else. He sucked up to Chance constantly. I cannot find examples of him behaving this way toward anyone else. Chance said to me that 'maybe Isaac was framing him'. I've thought about this. Honestly, I don't think Isaac was a capable enough player to do this. His Spy Moves were all extremely obvious. Furthermore, if Isaac were just a Spy latching onto a townie, it would have been me. Knowing that Camilla was a Citizen, he had to figure that I stood a great chance of getting lynched Day 2, and that being on my side would look great for him after the fact. Instead, he went with Chance. To me, again, the simplest conclusion is the most likely. He backed Chance because they were both scum. This tie is also evident, IMO, in the fact that after Isaac switched to the Republican side, he went after Jasmine..the only other person Chance was expressing real suspicion toward at the time. I don't find it believable that he was framing chance, and continued this effort after no longer being on the same team as him. Doesn't make much sense.
Chance on Day 5:
Chance hasn't had much to say today. He wanted me to consider the possibility that Isaac framed him, and that the Spies in general framed him. I did think about(and discuss) both of these things, ultimately coming to the conclusion that this was probably not what happened.
I did note, early in the day(and Mary agreed with me), that he did his best jump in on Dane's pre-imprisonment bullying of Lilith. Lilith that was later Imprisoned. I can't believe that this is just a coincidence, it is too convenient.
Chance been a Spy in my mind for most of the game, and it is time for him to be Exiled.
Chance on Day 1:
Chance was very avid in defending Camilla before she was lynched. Too avid, in my estimation(especially considering that he hasn't defended anyone else since then, despite being 'right' about Camilla). Plenty of people disagreed with my statement that Camilla contradicted herself, and they said so. But they didn't go out of their way to argue for Camilla. Why not? Because townies don't do so for people of unknown alignments, due to how it will reflect upon them if they just happen to be wrong.
Now, it's possible that this is simply how Chance is. Maybe he is a reckless player, or maybe he is some kind of white knight. Then, this would not be a tell. However, if this were the case, I believe that we would have seen more evidence of this in the last few days. And we have not. For me, that leaves the conclusion that Chance defended Camilla because he(as a Spy) knew she was a Citizen, and wanted to look good from it.
There is also the evidence that Chance used against me, early in the game. One of his early accusations was the 'Tina talking to Cory' thing that was being discussed for awhile. At first, Chance tried to hold it against me that I thought that this made them both Spies. Of course, it was Chance himself that said that they were talking after teams had been decided(to the point that he said I was wrong in thinking that they were talking after alignment, but before teams). Chance also displayed the exact same sentiment that I did. Once it was decided that he was wrong about the timing, he tried to change why this made me suspect, saying that I had been 'subtlely defending Cory and Tina'(a ludicrous accusation that he never provided evidence of, despite numerous requests from myself and others that he do so), and that my reaction was 'not overwhelming'(this is a paraphrase because I don't remember the exact words, but that is the sentiment. I pointed out that it's impossible to judge how someone reacts to something in AIM chat. Chance dropped this. I'm not so much holding it against him that he made such an awful point, but that he tried to change his argument when the first part was proven to be giant hypocrisy on his part.
Toward the end of Day 1, Chance was coming under significant fire from Awohali in group chat. He was flatly not answering some of Awohali's questions. This was pointed out(either by Awohali, myself, or both), and Chance said he would go find them to answer them. Instead, he just asked me some really obscure question that had nothing to do with anything, and then ducked out of the thread while I was trying to look it up.
Chance on Day 2:
At the start of Day 2(before Imprisonments etc), Chance started to take a serious amount of pressure from various sources. He had been a leading lynch candidate going into Exile(and would have ended up in a run-off tie w/ Camilla if not for her self-votes), and was only drawing more suspicion(as evidenced in threads from around that time). And then, out of nowhere, Chance gets Exile Immunity. Chance originally tried to argue that 'maybe a Citizen saved him', but this seems absurdly unlikely, considering that not many people outwardly supported Chance on our side(Isaac did..more on that later). Lilith and I put forth that the ability was very likely to have been a Spy ability, and that admittedly, they could just be trying to cause a mislynch. However, upon thinking about that more, I really don't think that is the case. Chance was an extremely likely lynch at the time, I can't see a Spy saving a mislynch just to mislynch them later. There is also the fact that, in my mind, if the Spies were going to frame someone here, it would have been me, considering my 'you can lynch me if Camilla is a Citizen' statement. The Spies giving me Exile immunity there would have been an absolute dagger and very likely would have resulted in me getting lynched the next day. The most likely conclusion here is the simple one. Chance, as a Spy under pressure, was saved from Exile by another Spy.
Chance really did not contribute much Day 2. This is partially expected, considering that I had removed his ability to vote. However, that removal did not stop him from making a case on me..nor did it stop him for talking out of the side of his mouth at Jasmine. I find this kind of insincerity to be a scum tell. Chance knew he was not going to get me lynched(the rest of the Democrats made this clear), but he still made a case on me. Yet, he was supposedly convinced that Jasmine was also a Spy..but made no case on her. It's also worth noting that he never said anything about Margot, despite the fact that she was constantly talked about by everyone else. For someone that was so vocal about the top lynch candidates the previous day, this is a glaring difference for him. I believe that he was content to simply let that lynch happen, and couldn't find a window to make himself look better by defending her, so he just said nothing.
Chance & Isaac:
There are many, many ties between Chance and Isaac. Isaac's attitude toward Chance is noticeably different than it is toward anyone else. He sucked up to Chance constantly. I cannot find examples of him behaving this way toward anyone else. Chance said to me that 'maybe Isaac was framing him'. I've thought about this. Honestly, I don't think Isaac was a capable enough player to do this. His Spy Moves were all extremely obvious. Furthermore, if Isaac were just a Spy latching onto a townie, it would have been me. Knowing that Camilla was a Citizen, he had to figure that I stood a great chance of getting lynched Day 2, and that being on my side would look great for him after the fact. Instead, he went with Chance. To me, again, the simplest conclusion is the most likely. He backed Chance because they were both scum. This tie is also evident, IMO, in the fact that after Isaac switched to the Republican side, he went after Jasmine..the only other person Chance was expressing real suspicion toward at the time. I don't find it believable that he was framing chance, and continued this effort after no longer being on the same team as him. Doesn't make much sense.
Chance on Day 5:
Chance hasn't had much to say today. He wanted me to consider the possibility that Isaac framed him, and that the Spies in general framed him. I did think about(and discuss) both of these things, ultimately coming to the conclusion that this was probably not what happened.
I did note, early in the day(and Mary agreed with me), that he did his best jump in on Dane's pre-imprisonment bullying of Lilith. Lilith that was later Imprisoned. I can't believe that this is just a coincidence, it is too convenient.
Chance been a Spy in my mind for most of the game, and it is time for him to be Exiled.