Magalie Wagon Analysis
Jul 9, 2010 17:38:27 GMT -6
Post by Tina on Jul 9, 2010 17:38:27 GMT -6
This needs to be figured out people.
Isaac-Magalie
spies8tina (2:59:14 PM): Magalie. Almost for sure at this point.
spies8tina (2:59:36 PM): Seems to be a useless, abrassive and slightly scummy case going.
spies8isaac (2:59:57 PM): For good reasons too, it's just odd though with all the leads they already had and Zed telling me your guys strongest leads went there too.
spies8isaac (3:00:19 PM): Very abrassive and rude..,
Little to no interaction between Isaac and Magalie occured on the dem side.
The better thing here is to look at why the wagon on Magalie completely fell apart after the third exile. Magalie votes were: Allan, Awohali, Chance, Cinnamyn, Cory, Gertrude and Jenny (+Mary). From the Republicans Stephanie and Lawrence, with only Lawrence having her as the top pick. Steph was a "Not Themba" vote. At the previous exile, Mary and Awohali voted Magalie.
What happened though? Magalie got zero nominations at the next exile. Here were the moves
Magalie -> Isaac (2) Cory and Mary
Magalie -> Jenny (2) Cinnamyn and Awohali
Magalie -> Steph (2) Jenny and Lawrence
Magalie -> Cladue (1) Chance
Magalie -> Rondak (1) Gertrude
The following players mentioned Magalie when they nominated someone - Lawrence. Just him. Out of eight people who wanted her exiled last time only one person mentioned her this time.
The following people get a slight reprieve for voting someone that last time they were unable to - Jenny, Cory, Claude and Mary.
In spies8.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=burg&action=display&thread=880 this post I anticipate what was going to happen. Here are reasons for people changing:
Gertrude: Had Rondak as a pick over Magalie, voted with masses to make it count. Also Themba was a cit. The second part needs explaining.
Cory: Magalie is trying now. Jasmine and Isaac higher suspects.
Cinnamyn: Magalie is trying now. Still suspicious for parroting votes.
Awohali: Would rather have Jenny nominated. Magalie appears second best to keep up pressure.
This leaves Chance, who did not answer my question.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
My thoughts on Magalie are torn. Biggest question is why did she show up as a nomination. Gertrude voted her over people she thought were more spy. Awohali I cannot tell if he would rather of had a Jenny exile.
Cinnamyn, Cory and maybe Awohali voted her to make her contribute more then suspected her it appears. Although Awohali had voted her in the past, and Cinnamyn had residual suspicion on her.
The two biggest things against Magalie are one part WFIOM and one part case.
1) Magalie has had suspicions of just two players this game; Gertrude and Claude. The Gertrude thing was dropped by the first time that I spoke to her. The Claude thing I do not know the state of now, but I think he is a cit.
2) The timing. This push occured after the Republicans had won the challenge, which created an ideal situation to bus a player. Fact of the matter, the chance of the Republicans voting for a Dem over who we put up was low. Everyone knew this, the case would need to be rock solid and Republicans conflicted. If Magalie was put up on a sudden 'Is not trying' and 'better then a thrown away vote' case, she would not be picked.
Right after this happened, where did the case on her go? She "came back" so one of the nine voters considered returning. This is just a gut level thing that makes me want her gone. If Magalie is a spy, I can guarentee at least one spy voted her and jumped ship. If I had to guess, they are in the group of Awohali, Cinnamyn and Chance.
Those are my thoughts on Magalie.
This does need to be gotten to the bottom of though. Wagons do not just evaporate like that.
Isaac-Magalie
spies8tina (2:59:14 PM): Magalie. Almost for sure at this point.
spies8tina (2:59:36 PM): Seems to be a useless, abrassive and slightly scummy case going.
spies8isaac (2:59:57 PM): For good reasons too, it's just odd though with all the leads they already had and Zed telling me your guys strongest leads went there too.
spies8isaac (3:00:19 PM): Very abrassive and rude..,
Little to no interaction between Isaac and Magalie occured on the dem side.
The better thing here is to look at why the wagon on Magalie completely fell apart after the third exile. Magalie votes were: Allan, Awohali, Chance, Cinnamyn, Cory, Gertrude and Jenny (+Mary). From the Republicans Stephanie and Lawrence, with only Lawrence having her as the top pick. Steph was a "Not Themba" vote. At the previous exile, Mary and Awohali voted Magalie.
What happened though? Magalie got zero nominations at the next exile. Here were the moves
Magalie -> Isaac (2) Cory and Mary
Magalie -> Jenny (2) Cinnamyn and Awohali
Magalie -> Steph (2) Jenny and Lawrence
Magalie -> Cladue (1) Chance
Magalie -> Rondak (1) Gertrude
The following players mentioned Magalie when they nominated someone - Lawrence. Just him. Out of eight people who wanted her exiled last time only one person mentioned her this time.
The following people get a slight reprieve for voting someone that last time they were unable to - Jenny, Cory, Claude and Mary.
In spies8.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=burg&action=display&thread=880 this post I anticipate what was going to happen. Here are reasons for people changing:
Gertrude: Had Rondak as a pick over Magalie, voted with masses to make it count. Also Themba was a cit. The second part needs explaining.
Cory: Magalie is trying now. Jasmine and Isaac higher suspects.
Cinnamyn: Magalie is trying now. Still suspicious for parroting votes.
Awohali: Would rather have Jenny nominated. Magalie appears second best to keep up pressure.
This leaves Chance, who did not answer my question.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
My thoughts on Magalie are torn. Biggest question is why did she show up as a nomination. Gertrude voted her over people she thought were more spy. Awohali I cannot tell if he would rather of had a Jenny exile.
Cinnamyn, Cory and maybe Awohali voted her to make her contribute more then suspected her it appears. Although Awohali had voted her in the past, and Cinnamyn had residual suspicion on her.
The two biggest things against Magalie are one part WFIOM and one part case.
1) Magalie has had suspicions of just two players this game; Gertrude and Claude. The Gertrude thing was dropped by the first time that I spoke to her. The Claude thing I do not know the state of now, but I think he is a cit.
2) The timing. This push occured after the Republicans had won the challenge, which created an ideal situation to bus a player. Fact of the matter, the chance of the Republicans voting for a Dem over who we put up was low. Everyone knew this, the case would need to be rock solid and Republicans conflicted. If Magalie was put up on a sudden 'Is not trying' and 'better then a thrown away vote' case, she would not be picked.
Right after this happened, where did the case on her go? She "came back" so one of the nine voters considered returning. This is just a gut level thing that makes me want her gone. If Magalie is a spy, I can guarentee at least one spy voted her and jumped ship. If I had to guess, they are in the group of Awohali, Cinnamyn and Chance.
Those are my thoughts on Magalie.
This does need to be gotten to the bottom of though. Wagons do not just evaporate like that.
