Getting these shits prepared for Tuesday. I think my time, and my pubebeard, could finally be over.
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In the chance that I'm finally eliminated tonight, I'm sending these out.
PLEASE post this in the Burg if I die. Perhaps entitled "Owen fought the Law, and the Law won (for now)." You love it. You know it.
TOWNHere I will act as if I am Jenny, looking for only citizens.Chance: Confirmed by Masons role with Gertrude. 99.9% percent sure that Sam would NOT lie about something like this. Confirming over and over that they can trust each other as town, then having one of them as scum, is a complete gamebreaker.
Claude: Aside from a general town vibe that I get from him, the way the first exile played out looks good for him. (
spies8.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=burg&thread=1483&page=1#9534) As far as the town vibes are concerned, I saw first hand how he reacted to Chance/Gertrude being Masons, and if he was acting, he deserves a fucking trophy. The way he acted during that time was genuine and the way he adapted to everything seemed legit to me.
Stephanie: As I've been saying for a while now, there is a sincerity she has that oozes citizen. Has odd thoughts, but it seems like she really believes them and is invested in them; doesn't have to reach for things and force them to fit into place. In a game where scum have to feign suspicions, I think those characteristics go a long way. There is always the chance that she's just an amazing actress, but even with me being distrustful by nature, Steph hasn't done anything since the beginning that's made me wary of her. Also, her reaction to Cory being the doctor and her complete refusal to believe it was one of the most cit-like things I've seen from anyone this game.
LEANING TOWNHere I'm indecisive because my gut won't allow me to be fully convinced.Mary: I had been getting pretty wary of Mary prior to the last round. However, she stopped holding back as much as she was, putting up a huge post a minute before imprisonment (which goes along with the thought that she had been trying to avoid imprisonment). Bigger than that is the fact that she went after Cinnamyn so early last round. In my (and I think others) estimation, the spies were on the track to locking this game up. Why would she go out of her way to extend the game and possibly risk a scum loss by being
early on Cinnamyn? Early is the key word here.
Jasmine: The fact that so many people piled on her to not get her vote back is a BIG red flag in my eyes. WIFOM spies or not, there is no way they're going to want and allow a fellow spy to lose their voting power so easily. There's a lot of things she does that are offputting and slightly scummy, but I've gotten the feeling that she's completely new to this kind of mafia setting. Newer players do things that makes it hard to apply normal scumtells to them.
WILDCARDHere is someone that hasn't really done anything to arise much suspicion from me, but could be scum due to process of elimination.Hambone: I really don't know. When we talk, I feel pretty good about him. Nothing screams citizen, but there's nothing that feels off about him. There's been plenty of times where I've gotten the feeling that he's got more experience then he lets on, which could definitely be a ploy for him to get by without doing too much. Also, as I've felt like I'd been being kept around for a mislynch, the fact that he has publicly said he'd vote me soon if I wasn't imprisoned is a red flag. Hasn't really done much other than go after Jenny and the people connected to her (Allan, Dane).
PRIME SCUM SUSPECTSWould be surprised there wasn't AT LEAST 2 scum in here.Prime Suspect #1:
LAWRENCE
Early on, Lawrence was one of the new Republicans that I was most concerned about. The things that arouse my suspicions at that point were:
- FOS's, while giving reasons NOT to FOS them:
spies8.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=burg&action=display&thread=761I had some issues with his comments to a few of the others on AIM where he said he'd be voting for Themba or Isaac right now. However, before saying that he said that Jasmine was the most suspicious to him, he had done no investigating on Isaac yet, had a gut feeling about Brod. Basically, suspicious on all of them without solid reasoning.
- No defense of this point made against him:
I felt a bit better about him after he made this post. It showed a lot of effort and pointed out the possible Isaac/Themba scum slip.
spies8.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=burg&action=display&thread=810Before it was pointed out publicly by Lawrence, it's something that I had found a few days before and shared with Gabriel and Tina. The three of us decided that it would be best if we kept it in and drop it on them at a later point if one of them was lynched and came up scum.
At the time I thought it was good that he revealed that, but now I think it's plausible that he revealed that knowing that it would make him look better in the case of an Isaac lynch. Also, if Themba was lynched before Isaac (which she was), it would also become completely null and couldn't be used against Isaac anymore.
This is far from my point in all of this, but it's something to note.
Now, it's going to be hard to get explanations for things that were done by original Lawrence, so let's move onto recent things. I had stopped being suspicious of Lawrence once Magalie flipped scum, as even during the Themba lynched, he was on Magalie.
The first thing recently that stuck out to me was his defending of Jasmine to get her vote back, then the gigantic flip-flop once others were against it.
The next day he's posting for Jasmine not to get her vote back, apparently after a conversation with Chance swayed him off. At this point, I feel like flip-floppers are the ones you have to watch out for the most, as they don't have as much wiggle room to just sit back and blend in. Feigning suspicion and such gets a bit more tricky when the numbers dwindle.
Again, not the true point that I'm getting to, but it's something worth thinking about.
Next, I think that Lawrence was throwing the most recent challenge that would have granted two of us imprisonment immunity.
Looking through the chat that night, you can find multiple instances where Lawrence pointed us in the wrong direction. Most importantly is this piece:
(11:50:25 PM)spies8lawrence: Gut tells me 6 is musician(11:50:25 PM) spies8mary: You guys ready to go for it?
(11:50:33 PM) spies8lawrence: Go fighter on 5
(11:50:35 PM) spies8mary: Fighter for #5?
(11:50:39 PM) spies8owen: Yeah.
(11:50:39 PM) spies8lawrence: 1 looks like a financial exec to me
(11:50:40 PM) spies8claude: Yeah, seems good.
(11:50:41 PM) spies8chance: yeah, go for it mary.
(11:50:49 PM) spies8mary: #5 is the fighter, Sam.
(11:50:52 PM) sorintheseeker: You guessed #5 is the Professional Fighter...
(11:50:55 PM) sorintheseeker: 5: Andre Baker, PROFESSIONAL FIGHTER.
(11:50:57 PM) sorintheseeker: correct!
(11:50:58 PM) spies8chance: yay!
(11:51:00 PM) spies8mary: Good.
(11:51:01 PM) spies8stephanie: yay
(11:51:06 PM) spies8lawrence: We're still in this
(11:51:07 PM) spies8claude: huzzah
(11:51:08 PM) spies8lawrence: Good
(11:51:15 PM) sorintheseeker: 1= Chance 2=Claude 3=Kiara 4=Lawrence 5=Mary 6=Owen 7=Stephanie. Rolling to see who make the final decision this round: (everyone discusses each)
(11:51:17 PM) sorintheseeker: sorintheseeker rolled 1 7-sided die: 3
(11:51:18 PM) spies8chance: 1 could be the gym guy.
(11:51:22 PM) sorintheseeker: Kiara is gone
(11:51:23 PM) spies8owen: Professions can't be re-used, right?(11:51:24 PM) spies8chance: kiara's not here.
(11:51:26 PM) sorintheseeker: sorintheseeker rolled 1 7-sided die: 7
(11:51:27 PM) sorintheseeker: right
(11:51:30 PM) sorintheseeker: Stephanie's turn.
(11:51:31 PM) spies8lawrence: No they can'tPlease notice that his gut was telling him that the answer was musician, yet that had already been used as an answer (and I believe it was the answer for the one HE gave the final answer to). I asked if professions can be reused, and he answers me just like Sam, so he CLEARLY knew that professions couldn't be re-used even when he was trying to do exactly that.
Agaaaaaaaain, not my main point, but it has merit.
Finally, getting to my main point... I am confident that Lawrence bussed Cinnamyn. Here is how I see the last round playing out for the spies.
- Cinnamyn becomes a prime target.
- Cinnamyn tries pushing suspicion onto the "trust group" (myself, Claude, Mary, Kiara).
- Cinnamyn has at least one scum partner backing up her suspicion on Claude, in this case, Lawrence (and possibly Kiara).
- After a while, the spies realize that Cinnamyn is inevitably going to be lynched. I believe that a decision was made early that morning, definitely after I made my post where I said I was voting Cinnamyn and gave a rock solid defense against those who were voting Claude. Stephanie also shares with Lawrence that morning that she is considering jumping onto the Cinnamyn wagon.
- Lawrence, knowing he would look terrible sticking on the Claude wagon if Cinnamyn flips scum, flips his vote. Whether or not Rondak is a spy, I'm not sure, but putting his vote on Cinnamyn would look the best for him.
... if he had Cinnamyn on his suspects before that. In his spy pair post, there was absolutely no mention of Cinnamyn. Then there's the way that his conversation with Steph played out the morning of the exile.
About the Claude stuff:
(9:51:47 AM) spies8lawrence: I should look into it
About Claude:
(9:53:23 AM) spies8lawrence: And as I said last night, the fact that he has slid onto Cinnamyn's wagon worries me
(9:54:08 AM) spies8stephanie: i am thinking of sliding onto it myself
(9:54:44 AM) spies8lawrence: There are certainly valid points in the case
Shortly after:
(9:58:55 AM) spies8stephanie: yes, cinn told me last night that she would vote rondak if she had a vote
(9:59:13 AM) spies8lawrence: Ah!
(9:59:41 AM) spies8lawrence: Alright
(9:59:51 AM) spies8lawrence: I believe I will change my vote to Cinnamyn
The best way to sum all of this up comes from my dearest Stephanie:
(7:04:38 PM) spies8stephanie: in a matter of 8 minutes, larry went from saying that you had a good point, but he was still susp. of claude for jumping on the cinn wagon, to jumping on the wagon himselfRead that and tell me that's not incredibly sketchy. You're probably on his scum-team if that's the case.
In conclusion: The main reason that I had stopped suspecting Lawrence for, his stance on Magalie, is blown completely out the window with Cinnamyn flipping scum. With Cinnamyn voting Magalie twice, it becomes quite clear that the spies could care less if she was lynched just so they could make themselves look better. I think the evidence is there to see that he bussed Cinnamyn when he was left with few options.
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Prime Suspect #2:
DANE
At first, I thought he was overaggressive town. That opinion. quickly just turned into overaggressive.
His first vote on Alexei and the fight that ensued between the two made him look good at the time. What has he done since then? Don't ask me, I'm asking that for a reason. Dane is only ever in the spotlight because of his constant arguments on AIM. His constant arguments makes it hard to get a read on him, and I think he could be playing that way for a reason (you know, so we can't get a read on him).
These spies have been loving the WIFOM, as we saw by Magalie getting her vote back. The first bribe against Dane to give up his vote for $5 could definitely be another one of those WIFOM moments to make him look good. Then there was when Allan took the bribe, Dane said only seconds after that he was taking the bribe too. A joke? Perhaps. But it really didn't sit well with me and seemed like just more WIFOM.
There's also a weird conversation I had with Cinnamyn the day before she left. We were talking nothing of Dane, though I had mentioned earlier that I was suspicious of him.
Just odd.
Overall, I don't think Dane should get by on what happened day 1 with Alexei, as at that point, it already seemed like a big probability that Alexei would be getting the boot. The fight between them definitely could have been staged, or it could have been because a fight with Dane will get you riled up regardless of alignments. Distancing is a great tool. There's also the possibility that he was trying to stop a Cin lynch.
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Prime Suspect #3:
KIARA
Here's some things that I had on Kiara pre-roleclaim:
- Pushed quite a bit for Themba coming in; citizen. Other top suspect was Stephanie; probable citizen who was in danger of being lynched. Citizens are wrong, but it's worth noting that they were both under heat already.
- Voted for me to get the "biggest power in Spies history" yet the two of us have only had one legitimate conversation since then. I say legitimate, because I got this after winning the power:
(12:03:33 AM) spies8kiara: i just want it on record that if you end up being a spy i will hate you when this is all over lol!
To me, that lacks sincerity. Almost Isaac, not quite there, but ALMOST an Isaac "lol." I don't know if she doesn't trust me now or whatnot, but I'd think that a citizen would try to talk to someone more after giving them such a large responsibility.
The other conversation (and last conversation that we had) was about me stressing over the decision, and included this:
(12:44:04 AM) spies8owen: I really hope he was telling the truth about using it on Allan.
(12:44:18 AM) spies8owen: Because if he uses it me, there's a big chance that I won't even have a choice of who to vote for.
(12:44:25 AM) spies8owen: Say only 1 of the 3 people he allows me to pick gets nominated.
(12:44:38 AM) spies8owen: I won't have a decision. Claude would have made it for all of us.
(12:45:18 AM) spies8kiara: that role has the potential to break the game
Which brings me to my next point:
- She has a fixation on going after roleholders -- first Claude, then Allan. Well, until she was pretty much forced off of the Allan vote by Tina. I know she's said she's given reasons why she's voted Claude (other than his "scummy" role) but I have yet to find them. Her reasons on Allan seem reasonable, but it's still worth noting that she's put attention on these two roleholders as lynch targets. Both of them are people I believe to be town.
- spies8.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=burg&thread=931&page=1#5041 This post. She gives good food for thought, but the point of the post absolutely could have been to take the attention off of Isaac and onto Stephanie.
- When pressed by Cory for conversations with Isaac and her, she said that there were only "3 tops." However, she couldn't provide any of the conversations at the time.
^ Parts of her conversation with Cory after this. She acknowledges these are good points against her, but she also seems extremely flustered with the amount of typos/complete wrong usage of words. Drunk? Flustered? Both?Since then, Kiara claimed. Not voting her out after the claim is one of my biggest, if not the biggest regret I've had thus far. Her role isn't overly useful or confirmable and I had a much stronger feeling on her than Zed.
The role claim in general is starting to look a bit odd to me since I heard she had been hinting about claiming but was waiting for her voters to get online. Cinnamyn was voting for her, yet she never claimed to Cinnamyn. Why? Could be because Cinnamyn was a scum partner and already knew about either a fake role Kiara was making up or that she had it as a scum role. Her waiting to just tell Cory and I bothers me a bit when Cinnamyn was on her as well. I've also worried about the claim being so late, as it would give us a lot less time to make a sound decision.
This previous round she was on two opposing wagons of Cinnamyn's. First Claude, which again, I think anyone voting Claude would have look terrible after Cinnamyn's flip and my defense of him. Then Rondak. Tough luck or protecting her scum partner?
Seems like she's had a bunch of tough luck if that's the case, if Rondak is town, I think that she has not voted for a scum player the entire time...
Kiara: Did Not Vote, Themba, Themba/Themba, Claude? (nom), Rondak (nom), Jenny (nom), Chance (nom), Jenny, Rondak.
To play devils advocate, you'd think she'd have bussed at least once to make herself look good. Quite possible she started her bussing last round though.
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Prime Suspect #4:
RONDAK
I'm not as invested in Ronnie-scum as I am of the previous 3, as there hasn't been too many things he's done that have really bothered me or stuck out to me.
There's the early stuff on him, like him asking Stephanie what bussing was twice; once before Alexei's lynch, once after. That right there is a big red flag, as the term becomes fairly obvious quickly. Could have been trying to prove a point like "I don't know what bussing is, so how could I have bussed Alexei?"
Gertrude's case on him looked good to me at the time it was posted, but reading back on conversations, a good majority of the things he said that would indicate him having experience or more knowledge than a new townie should have are things that he asked me in the beginning and I provided answers for.
The main thing on Rondak is a lack of hunting and some lurking. Not as solid of scumtells as I'd like, but by a process of elimination, Rondak belongs in this category.
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I also think that Lawrence and Dane may have been faking their fighting and suspicions of each other. Neither has made any sort of impact going at each other, and this would be a great way for them to distance themselves. Probably fondling each other and giggling in IM while they go at it on the forums.
That's all. If I go, it hasn't been consistently fun, but I'll miss most of you. We finally got back into the game last round, please don't blow it.
they don't think it be like it is, but it do.
