Tina
Tina
I found Fifi
Posts: 7
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Post by Tina on Jul 3, 2010 13:44:20 GMT -6
This game does a good job of destroying my confidence, I will give it that much.
I just am thinking that there is too little resistance to a lot of things that are going on at this point. Isaac, Magalie, Chance and Jenny are basically an unanimous top four. The problem is that most of them seem to work well as spies.
I am immune for imprisonment though, and unfortunately cannot give my immunity away to Nita, which kinda sucks. Lil picked up the second one even though absolutely no one else on the republicans needed it in the least bit. One thing that bugs me about her is how interested she is in the doctor. We will see what happens though, if there is an off the wall imprisonment we might return to her. Think she is a cit though.
It is going to come down to Isaac-Magalie-Chance-Jenny though this time, and probably next time. Out of those I can very realisticly see a Isaac-Chance pairing showing up. So I am going to be looking there I guess.
At least someone I trust fairly well picked up the kingmaker power. If owen is a cit I am estatic that I did not get it.
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Tina
Tina
I found Fifi
Posts: 7
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Post by Tina on Jul 3, 2010 20:45:45 GMT -6
Nita wasn't town?
Seriously?
Wow. Just wow. Very impressive. Wow.
I need to get on things again. Lots of stuff needs to start making sense in a very short time span. Isaac I need to relook at, just closer this time. Chance also could be a realistic one as I can see the two of them being spies together. Magalie, I am not as sure on as I felt I was recently.
I need another person to trust. The problem is I do not think much of my cit reads in usefulness, or the ones who I think can help I am not sure on.
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Tina
Tina
I found Fifi
Posts: 7
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Post by Tina on Jul 3, 2010 22:32:13 GMT -6
Have I mentioned recently how much I really hate the way that most people are going about doing things? There are quite a few people who need massive pressure to get reads out of, there are people who do not know what arguing is, and there are people that are super annoying to be listening to.
Claude-Chance are horribly tunneled into eachother, and I am wondering if neither are even spies at this point. I do not get the two of them thinking that what they are going could be remotely benificial.
Jasmine and Isaac need to stop chat-log posting against eachother. That is not evidence, you are supposed to say what you think the quotes mean, not let the reader interpret it. Doing it that way is scummy and a copout. If i have to beat that into them I will. I already get mad when they try and say "read this large log".
Then we have people who do not do anything productive under fear of whatever. This people are starting to wear on me, and a part of me just wants to exile a spy so I can be imprisoned with my part of this game done.
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Tina
Tina
I found Fifi
Posts: 7
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Post by Tina on Jul 5, 2010 1:52:39 GMT -6
Time to start doing stuff.
It is either Isaac or Jenny to me. I have far more doubts about Isaac actually being a spy, but think Jenny would be more valueable to have alive as a cit.
Have I been wrong this entire time about Isaac-Jasmine? Do not know. Need to figure it out soon however. Hopefully this big post I got half of up tonight will at least start it. Actually thinking Magalie is a cit at this point.
Gut is telling me Brod is spy now. I need to figure out if that is warrented.
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Tina
Tina
I found Fifi
Posts: 7
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Post by Tina on Jul 6, 2010 16:12:05 GMT -6
So many Brod is not gut spy anymore.
Lots of role related (but not game related *seething hate*) has happened over the last little bit. Apparently the doctor (Lawrence I think) is still alive. Someone messaged Allan from beyond the grave, claiming to be Savannah, and said that Gabe was the doctor. I have known about the "Gabe was doctor" for a few days at this point. What I did not know what that Allan got this from what is very likely not Savannah.
Did you stick a spy messanger or a spy ultimate backup in this one? We will see.
Either way, someone apparently claimed doctor to Owen. Which means it is probably not an always dem. Also it was not a top suspect of mine. Also they did not protect Nita (?) which again points to it being a new-rep. So it probably is Law. Oh well.
Lil is pretending to be the doc to get imprisoned because she lacks confidence and thinks that this is the best way to contribute to the game. I still think there is a better way to go about this if we want to fake something though, maybe without someone knowing we are sacraficing them.
Someone needs to slip to Jenny something that heavily suggests someone is the doctor. Either in just talk, or something that was supposed to go to a different person.
Noms are looking like a Isaac-Jenny-Steph-Claude mix, basically meaning Isaac is gone. No way Steph goes, Owen would rather trap Jenny, and Claude I dunno. He is a mystery.
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Tina
Tina
I found Fifi
Posts: 7
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Post by Tina on Jul 7, 2010 1:05:37 GMT -6
Well it ended up somehow being Isaac-Jenny-Steph. Someone used a role and votes were manipulated to put Steph up over the tie between Steph-Claude-Rondak. Isaac as cit would have voted Claude so that is out, which means spies did not want Claude or Rondak up.
Whatever on whatever that means.
Isaac is gone. You are kidding yourself if you think otherwise. Trap is going to be used on Jenny with Steph as the bait. It makes a lot of sense for Owen and Myself to know she is the "doctor". Too tired to keep writing tonight. Will hopefully get in a lengthy one before deadline hits tomorrow.
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Tina
Tina
I found Fifi
Posts: 7
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Post by Tina on Jul 8, 2010 0:42:00 GMT -6
Ha.
Isaac was a spy, which of course means there is a good chance that I am imprisoned. That means I am going to need to do as much work as possible by friday.
Mary and Cinn got their votes back today, not bad but not great. I think Lil and Awohali would have been ideal to me. I declined getting mine back from Owen, since I figure that I am going to be imprisoned and it will be useless. If not, I still have partial control over Owens so it does not matter too much. Tried for the challenge one though, but I lost. Stupid word challenges.
With someone attached to lots of people flipping spy it makes things fun. This flip says that Owen, Claude and Jasmine are obviously citizens. Cory and Mary also get a few points.
Chance, Magalie and Brod become my top spy picks due to this. I will be ungody estatic if my read of Brod-spy ends up being correct, since he would be the "smart spy" in the group. How much he is trying to instill Claude-spy and he got bussed is really making me uncomfortable right now.
Will be trying to make cases on these three ASAP and get that out to Owen and Lil, maybe Steph too although everyone going cit on her suddenly still is odd to me. I thought it was all a null tell.
At this point for the remaining five spies I will say: Magalie-Chance-Broderick-[Jenny/Gert/Rondak/Cinnamyn/Dane]
Sort of a guess.
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Tina
Tina
I found Fifi
Posts: 7
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Post by Tina on Jul 8, 2010 15:59:25 GMT -6
Isaac-Magalie spies8tina (2:59:14 PM): Magalie. Almost for sure at this point. spies8tina (2:59:36 PM): Seems to be a useless, abrassive and slightly scummy case going. spies8isaac (2:59:57 PM): For good reasons too, it's just odd though with all the leads they already had and Zed telling me your guys strongest leads went there too. spies8isaac (3:00:19 PM): Very abrassive and rude.., Little to no interaction between Isaac and Magalie occured on the dem side. The better thing here is to look at why the wagon on Magalie completely fell apart after the third exile. Magalie votes were: Allan, Awohali, Chance, Cinnamyn, Cory, Gertrude and Jenny (+Mary). From the Republicans Stephanie and Lawrence, with only Lawrence having her as the top pick. Steph was a "Not Themba" vote. At the previous exile, Mary and Awohali voted Magalie. What happened though? Magalie got zero nominations at the next exile. Here were the moves Magalie -> Isaac (2) Cory and Mary Magalie -> Jenny (2) Cinnamyn and Awohali Magalie -> Steph (2) Jenny and Lawrence Magalie -> Cladue (1) Chance Magalie -> Rondak (1) Gertrude The following players mentioned Magalie when they nominated someone - Lawrence. Just him. Out of eight people who wanted her exiled last time only one person mentioned her this time. The following people get a slight reprieve for voting someone that last time they were unable to - Jenny, Cory, Claude and Mary. In spies8.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=burg&action=display&thread=880 this post I anticipate what was going to happen. Here are reasons for people changing: Gertrude: Had Rondak as a pick over Magalie, voted with masses to make it count. Also Themba was a cit. The second part needs explaining. Cory: Magalie is trying now. Jasmine and Isaac higher suspects. Cinnamyn: Magalie is trying now. Still suspicious for parroting votes. Awohali: Would rather have Jenny nominated. Magalie appears second best to keep up pressure. This leaves Chance, who did not answer my question. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ My thoughts on Magalie are torn. Biggest question is why did she show up as a nomination. Gertrude voted her over people she thought were more spy. Awohali I cannot tell if he would rather of had a Jenny exile. Cinnamyn, Cory and maybe Awohali voted her to make her contribute more then suspected her it appears. Although Awohali had voted her in the past, and Cinnamyn had residual suspicion on her. The two biggest things against Magalie are one part WFIOM and one part case. 1) Magalie has had suspicions of just two players this game; Gertrude and Claude. The Gertrude thing was dropped by the first time that I spoke to her. The Claude thing I do not know the state of now, but I think he is a cit. 2) The timing. This push occured after the Republicans had won the challenge, which created an ideal situation to bus a player. Fact of the matter, the chance of the Republicans voting for a Dem over who we put up was low. Everyone knew this, the case would need to be rock solid and Republicans conflicted. If Magalie was put up on a sudden 'Is not trying' and 'better then a thrown away vote' case, she would not be picked. Right after this happened, where did the case on her go? She "came back" so one of the nine voters considered returning. This is just a gut level thing that makes me want her gone. If Magalie is a spy, I can guarentee at least one spy voted her and jumped ship. If I had to guess, they are in the group of Awohali, Cinnamyn and Chance. Those are my thoughts on Magalie.
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Tina
Tina
I found Fifi
Posts: 7
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Post by Tina on Jul 8, 2010 17:21:47 GMT -6
Levels of suspicion
Citizen (low if any chance of being spy): Claude, Jasmine, Owen, Allan. Probably Citizen (not shock as spy, but will defend them): Lilith, Cory, Mary, Steph, Hambone (?), Awohali (?). Hambone and Awohali are on the fence. No Clue: Lawrence, Kiara, Zek, Gertrude. Probably Spy: Dane, Jenny, Rondak, Cinnamyn, Broderick. Spy: Magalie
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Tina
Tina
I found Fifi
Posts: 7
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Post by Tina on Jul 9, 2010 17:29:57 GMT -6
To make one thing clear to start, these are not all of my top suspects. Those are in Chance, Magalie, Jenny and Lawrence. Start your search there. These are the people that I think if I do not make a point today, that will easily slip into the backgroud and be forgotten.
People that will need an eye on them for the rest of this game are Cinnamyn, Awohali, Dane and Broderick. I would be shocked if all four were citizens, the chance of two spies in here is greater then zero.
For a very brief rundown of the why behind these four.
~Broderick~ This one should be more obvious then the others, yet I have this feeling that he is not going to take any heat for at least another two exiles.
There was very little mention of Isaac from Broderick. He talked about him being an "easy exile"
spies8broderick (19:42:40): In all honesty, I think Lawrence is the easiest target from us ex-Democrats spies8jasmine (19:42:49): Group chats, yes. that was our main conversing over there. spies8broderick (19:42:54): isaac would be the second easiest
One interesting sidenote is that last exile, Broderick nominated Jasmine over Stephanie when his top three were Steph/Jas/Gert (not sure on order). Steph was the only one who had a legitimate shot at being actually nominated. He has been voting Jasmine since E2, but it is worth noting. The explaination of that should be given, even though it is not a big point.
The bigger point comes from the Chance-Claude relationship and his opinions of Jasmine/Isaac.
At the first exile, Broderick voted for Chance. Chance at that point wanted Claude gone. Isaac wanted Claude gone, and visa versa. Jasmine wanted Isaac gone and visa versa. Brod wanting Jasmine and Chance gone do not line up well. This would be very nice to explain. He apparently does still like Chance as a spy though, so may be somewhat of a null point.
Basic on Broderick - If Gertrude is a spy, he is more likely a spy. If Lawrence is a spy, he is more likely a citizen.
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~Cinnamyn~
Girl is hard to pin down, with no contact there through three exiles I have little to go off of, but gut says she need a close eye on her.
Cinn was one of the most confusing Magalie votes, as quickly Jenny overtook her for a top suspect due to
spies8cinnamyn (7:42:52 PM): i voted magalie cuz of her vote parrotin' n' lousy suspect reazinz spies8cinnamyn (7:42:57 PM): n' cuz she never spyhunted spies8cinnamyn (7:43:23 PM): but wen it came 2 dis exile she showed up more n' participated more, n' jenny n' izaac stuck out more 2 me spies8tina (7:43:50 PM): Well, you bring up Jenny, yet she was available for you to vote previously. spies8tina (7:43:57 PM): What caused the change there> spies8cinnamyn (7:44:12 PM): nita happened spies8cinnamyn (7:44:23 PM): plus her commentz about ppl bein' citz
So Jenny having known about Nita's role and calling people cit instead of calling people spy made the shift. Magalie still remains a high level pick for her though spies8tina (7:47:34 PM): Going back to Magalie though, so you have her as an outside suspect or what? spies8cinnamyn (7:48:17 PM): yea spies8cinnamyn (7:48:27 PM): i still had her az top 3 las' exile
One thing that is causing me a pause is her saying that she would have voted Jenny over Isaac. Maybe I am a sucker for this kind of stuff, but I like hearing it.
Cinn did say that she wanted to see Jenny and Isaac nominated however. It seems to make sense that both should go up given the talk with her I had that had me explaining Isaac stuff to her met with lots of agreement and "That is stupid of him" responses.
Not sure that what she said would make Isaac a pick over Magalie though. She seemed to never care about him untill this point. Maybe a sudden "Exile Isaac" push would have been feared to read too much like a bus, I do not know, but Cinn is someone to keep an eye on. Especially as she is going to be voting.
If Jenny is a spy, Cinnamyn is a citizen. If Magalie is a spy, Cinnamyn is probably a spy.
~Awohali~
Another person who has odd relations with Magalie. He was on her for a long time before dropping her last exile for Jenny. The drop came from the fact that Magalie was trying suddenly. He also states "What Dems put up on Jenny E3" as evidence against her, yet he voted for Magalie there?
At E3 if the dems who all had Jenny as a suspect voted her, she would have been nommed I believe, or been a vote shy of overtaking Magalie. Someone needs to force him to take a strong stance on these two.
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All I have time for.
~~~~~~~~Random quotes~~~~~~~
spies8isaac (21:04:55): LOL, well as a whole picture. Lawrence did almost a complete 180 from day 1 until now and with the percieved lurking...aka(Eating...lol) it was definitly enough to make me take notice, But lawrence does seem to be making a genuine effort to help. I just kinda find it odd he posted the thread though and didn't stop in to say hi
spies8broderick (21:17:35): well, larry didn't seem to be a target on dem side; you and isaac and jas all came in her suspecting and sniping each other and mostly ignoring him
^^^^Compare to what Isaac says about Law in "Questions for Tina"
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My best advice? Put Chance-Magalie-Lawrence-Jenny up for exile this time.
I would say informational wise, exile Magalie. Best spy chance is either Law or Chance.
Get to the bottom of what happened with Magalie. Spies are definantly involved in what happened with her.
For votes back: Stephanie and Jasmine. Cory is also a good bet.
Have fun too.
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