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Post by Claude on Jul 7, 2010 4:42:22 GMT -6
So, as of the last Nomination Count, this is where we(supposedly) stood: Isaac by Tina Isaac by Claude Isaac by Jasmine Isaac by Cory Isaac by Mary Jenny by Cinnamyn Jenny by Awohali Jenny by Bone Jenny by Rondak Stephanie by Lawrence Stephanie by Jenny Stephanie by Dane Claude by Kiara Claude by Magalie Claude by Chance Rondak by Lilith Rondak by Gertrude Rondak by Zedekiah Jasmine by Broderick Lawrence by Stephanie Chance/Isaac by Allan  ?? by Isaac Ultimately, what this means is that at least one of the three people that is up for Exile today is a Citizen. We can probably break that down further. Isaac is clearly ahead of the others in terms of people being suspicious of him(even more than that, I don't think that anyone has specifically stated that they find him to be a Citzen/likely citizen). Accordingly, it is unlikely that Isaac is the Citizen. If so, I can't see why the Spies would even bother with this ability today. He was already likely to get Exiled, using their ability to ensure what was already likely to happen is really, really bad. Considering that it was Stephanie that was 'brought in' as the last minute candidate, I think that this means either A)she is a citizen or B)a fellow Spy brought her into the 3 way Exile possibility, to make it look like she is a citizen. Except..the 'vote fog' largely mitigates this. So ultimately, I think that Stephanie is a Citizen. I think that this also means that someone else that had 3 votes on them as of the last tally is probably a Spy. Forcing Stephanie into the 'Exile Pool' doesn't make very much sense, otherwise. That leaves myself and Rondak(well, just Rondak to me, but obviously that's not an objective evaluation). So, ultimately, I believe that amongst the player pool of Isaac, Jenny, and Rondak, there are at least 2 spies, possibly 3(if Jenny and Isaac are both Spies, then the Spies using this 'vote fog' ability today makes perfect sense..they would have HAD to force a situation where there was at least 1 citizen up for Exile). When I started this post, I thought that we would be able to get a better idea of who moved their vote to Stephanie. That didn't really prove to be the case, because anyone can just lie about it. Which brings me to my final point. Everyone should state whom they nominated. It is possible that this information will be useful later, and it is possible that a lying Spy will simply not know what to say, and will get caught. I will start. As I said I was going to do, I nominated Isaac. |
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Post by Dane on Jul 7, 2010 7:47:13 GMT -6
I nominated stephanie, as stated, but you forget something Claude. In the case of a tie for votes, the person that was nominated FIRST in a confessional goes up, don't they? I nominated Steph pretty early...
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Post by Stephanie on Jul 7, 2010 8:10:25 GMT -6
Dane, do you pay attention to anything?
I did think about moving my vote, but left it on Lawrence.
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Post by Jasmine on Jul 7, 2010 10:19:11 GMT -6
I stayed on Isaac for the vote.
I don't think this makes it likely that there is 2 or 3 spies in the "pool" as you called it, Claude. I think this makes it likely there is 1 spy. And they were trying to make it so it wasn't 2 spies up there or something. Possibly Rondak getting a ton of votes at the last minute, it seemed, scared them? Not sure. So they wanted to push Stephanie with the most(Maybe Isaac's vote?) And now they only have one spy there instead of what was going to be two(Isaac+Rondak).
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Post by Broderick on Jul 7, 2010 10:22:02 GMT -6
Had the vote tallies remained as posted, there would of been five nominees. Isaac & Jenny for having the most votes. Stephanie, Claude, and Rondak because all were tied for third. If Isaac and Jenny are spies, and the spies forced Stephanie to be up there. That makes no sense. Why not leave it as it was and have five nominees instead of the three?
I nominated Jasmine as I said I was.
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Post by Broderick on Jul 7, 2010 10:23:22 GMT -6
Did you post two conversations Stephanie?
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Post by Jasmine on Jul 7, 2010 10:25:22 GMT -6
I really think Rondak/Claude are both spies, or at least one was..and so Isaac(the voter we don't know yet) most likely voted Stephanie to keep from a 2nd, or 3rd(if Jenny is a spy) to be nominated.
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Post by Lilith on Jul 7, 2010 10:36:10 GMT -6
Did you post two conversations Stephanie? Even if she didn't, that would not explain the nominees. People who didn't post confessionals get added into the poll AFTER the three with the most votes. |
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Post by Chance on Jul 7, 2010 10:39:14 GMT -6
i'm pretty sure not posting confessionals netted you penalty votes whereas not voting got you automatically nominated, didn't it?
in any case, my vote was on claude.
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Post by Stephanie on Jul 7, 2010 11:02:43 GMT -6
Did you post two conversations Stephanie? Yes, I did post conversations. So, it sure looks to me like I picked up an extra vote from someone who didn't want it known. From my point of view, I can see any number of reasons why people might want to hide their vote of me. Because they didn't have a good reason for their vote, or because the vote would be inconsistent with their previously stated position, or because they thought an iffy vote on a cit would backfire on them later. What I can't understand at all is why they would bother? It looked like I was going to be nominated anyway. I guess you could make an argument that Claude or Rondak wanted to stay out of the nominations, but I don't think that makes much sense to go to all this trouble. I just don't get it. |
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Post by Lilith on Jul 7, 2010 11:16:34 GMT -6
I am beginning to suspect maybe the top 3 are all citizens, and that is why this power was used, while one (or both?) of Claude or RONDAK (<--- him) are mafia. Maybe mafia think one more exiled citizen gets them just ever so closer to the win.
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Post by Claude on Jul 7, 2010 12:29:43 GMT -6
Logically/statistically, it makes the most sense for one of Isaac/Jenny to be mafia, and one of Rondak/myself. I really can't see Stephanie as a Spy now.
The way it stood before, it looked like the nomination pool would be: Isaac, Jenny, Stephanie, myself, Rondak. if 2 of those 4 are Spies, that is a 40% chance of a Spy being exiled. The way it stands now, if only one of Isaac/Jenny is a Spy, it is a 33% chance of a Spy being exiled.
It's also possible that Lilith could be correct, but I find it unlikely that both Isaac and Jenny are citizens.
Looks bad for Rondak(and for me if you are..not me...) no matter what, though.
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Post by Lilith on Jul 7, 2010 12:42:50 GMT -6
Logically/statistically, it makes the most sense for one of Isaac/Jenny to be mafia, and one of Rondak/myself. I really can't see Stephanie as a Spy now. The way it stood before, it looked like the nomination pool would be: Isaac, Jenny, Stephanie, myself, Rondak. if 2 of those 4 are Spies, that is a 40% chance of a Spy being exiled. The way it stands now, if only one of Isaac/Jenny is a Spy, it is a 33% chance of a Spy being exiled. It's also possible that Lilith could be correct, but I find it unlikely that both Isaac and Jenny are citizens. Looks bad for Rondak(and for me if you are..not me...) no matter what, though. That sounds really silly, that one of you two is mafia, and one of those two. Bottom line, Stephanie wasn't going to get exiled anyways.I just felt the urge to throw that out there so I can laugh at the people who wasted votes on Steph as well as the spies who pulled the voting "shroud" thing to get her nominated. Although if both Jenny or Isaac are citizens, then their goal of making sure all the nominees were citizens was accomplished. But if there goal was to add another citizen to the nomination so that Jenny and/or Isaac had a better chance, they failed miserably. |
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Post by Hambone on Jul 7, 2010 14:56:21 GMT -6
My vote was obvs. on Jenny
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Cory
Cory
Hot Because He's Fly
Posts: 127
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Post by Cory on Jul 7, 2010 15:43:18 GMT -6
Isaac.
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Kiara
Kiara
little one
Posts: 76
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Post by Kiara on Jul 7, 2010 17:39:44 GMT -6
got to play devils advocate here. if we assume that the vote count at the top of the thread is accurate, then in order for issac, jenny, and stephanie to be the only ones nominated then only one person who wasnt already voting for jenny or stephanie needed to change their vote to stephanie. and thats more than half (tina, claude, jasmine, cory, mary, me, magalie, chance, lilith, gertrude, zedekiah, broderick, allan, isaac). so in theory if one of them (well i guess us since im on that list) was the person with the ability and was a spy, they could simply go rouge. make the decision by themselves without consulting the other spies. its unlikely, but a possibility.
a much more likely scenario in my opinion is that it was done merely to cause confusion. out of those five i think isaac was the most likely to be exiled, followed by jenny. what if they are both citizens? by changing the exile list from 5 to 3, it is likely that of the 3 the 1 who wasnt 'brought in' would be dismissed. this guarantees a citizen lynch. there are also some other added benefits. the 'brought in' nomination would probably be dismissed as a suspect, which seems to be happening. if stephanie is in fact a spy, the spies could have just extended her life expectancy by a loooooong time. it also begs the question why werent rondak or claude brought in, increasing the likelihood that one of them would end up being exiled next round.
its hard to say what the spies motives were, but dont get tunnel vision! jumping to conclusions could be dangerous and screw us in the long run.
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Bizarrondak
Rondak
Everything is coming up Rondak.
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Post by Bizarrondak on Jul 7, 2010 17:55:37 GMT -6
My vote was for Jenny. She was consistently my top suspect and I never wavered.
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Tina
Tina
I found Fifi
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Post by Tina on Jul 7, 2010 18:48:44 GMT -6
I have been thinking and believe that this entire thing is just one big distraction.
Before it occured, the people who would be nominated were Isaac, Jenny, Claude, Steph and Rondak. The two events that could have occured was Isaac voted for Steph, or spies moved votes to put up Steph during the whole hidden vote things.
The better thing to ask is; Why does it matter?
Seriously ask yourself that question. If you have had any contact with Owen, the chance of him voting for Steph is very low. You may say that is was to protect one of Claude or Rondak. Again this is a very low probability thing, since he is not keen on a Claude exile, and prefers both Isaac and Jenny to Rondak.
Why did this occur? I think the answer is simple. Confusion, paranoia and making people ignore the fact that we have an exile. Look at what has happened in the last 24 hours. How many conversations have been about the mystery voting? How many conversations have been about who to exile?
My point is. Nothing changed with putting Steph up. Nothing could have changed without one of Jenny and Isaac going down. This is a distraction.
Also just for the record. I did vote Isaac.
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Post by Dane on Jul 8, 2010 8:59:23 GMT -6
Gotta agree Tina: Stephanie being put up in the top 3 last second does NOT clear her, since Owen specifically stated he would exile both Isaac and Jenny over stephanie
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Post by Jenny on Jul 9, 2010 12:00:41 GMT -6
I was just talking to Lily about where Al had been lately, and was looking up my logs with him, and I saw that he did tell me he was going to vote Isaac over Lucky before he left. I knew he had said somewhere, I was just thinking it was in public, sorry about that. At least we know for sure with that, for what it's worth.
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Post by Jasmine on Jul 9, 2010 17:02:51 GMT -6
Who is Al, Who is Lily? Who is Lucky?
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Kiara
Kiara
little one
Posts: 76
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Post by Kiara on Jul 9, 2010 17:16:36 GMT -6
allan, lilith, chance
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Kiara
Kiara
little one
Posts: 76
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Post by Kiara on Jul 9, 2010 17:37:13 GMT -6
so i got a theory on this. what if the ability to hide who voted whom was isaacs ability? he knew he was going, so he figured better to use it than waste it? the spies as a whole didnt want to move their votes around too much because it could hurt them later on when more people have had their alignments revealed. isaac (bein the unknown voter at the time) slaps his vote onto steph pulling her into the top three and taking out claude and rondak. much confusion and speculation occurs over why the spies would do such a thing, and the only person who could be caught in a lie for switching their vote is the one gettin exiled anyway.
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Cory
Cory
Hot Because He's Fly
Posts: 127
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Post by Cory on Jul 9, 2010 20:47:51 GMT -6
Lots of guessing there, Kiara. You wouldn't happen to have inside knowledge on any of this, would you?
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Post by Claude on Jul 9, 2010 20:52:39 GMT -6
Funny, that is exactly how I interpret it as well, Cory.
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Kiara
Kiara
little one
Posts: 76
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Post by Kiara on Jul 9, 2010 21:30:21 GMT -6
bitch please. everything in this thread is speculation. anyone who say someone is or isn't a spy because of this have inside info too?
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